How to Prove People Will Pay — Before You Build Anything

Here's a brutal truth most founders learn too late: 42% of startups fail because they build something nobody wants.

Not because they ran out of money. Not because the competition crushed them. They simply spent months (sometimes years) building a product that customers never asked for.

The fix? Product validation — proving people will pay before you write a single line of code.

Buffer did it with a two-page landing page. Dropbox did it with a three-minute video. Pieter Levels has validated (and killed) over 70 product ideas, keeping only the five that now generate $3M+ annually.

I'm going to show you the exact product validation process these founders used — and how you can steal their playbook in 2025.

TL;DR: The Product Validation Playbook

The Problem — Most founders build first, validate later (or never)
The Reality — 42% of startups fail from no market need
The Solution — Prove demand before building with these methods

The Validation Hierarchy (strongest to weakest):

1. Pre-sales (someone pays you money)
2. Landing page + paid ads (strangers convert)
3. Waitlist signups (measurable interest)
4. Customer interviews (qualitative insights)
5. Surveys (directional data only)

The Timeline: 2-4 weeks, $100-500 budget

The Rule: If strangers won't pay for it before it exists, they probably won't pay after either.

What Is Product Validation (And Why Most Founders Skip It)

Product validation is the process of proving real demand exists for your idea before investing significant time or money building it. It answers one critical question: Will people actually pay for this?

Notice I said "pay" — not "like," not "sign up for free," not "tell you it's a great idea." Payment is the only validation signal that truly matters.

Here's why most founders skip this step: fear of rejection. It feels safer to build in private than to put an unfinished idea in front of potential customers who might say no.

According to CB Insights analysis of 483 startup post-mortems, "no market need" tops the list of failure reasons at 42%. Beyond that, 90% of startups fail overall, with technology startups specifically hitting a 63% failure rate within five years.

These numbers aren't meant to scare you. They're meant to show you that product validation isn't optional — it's survival.

The Product Validation Hierarchy: What Actually Proves Demand

Not all validation methods are equal. Here's the hierarchy ranked by signal strength.

Tier 1: Pre-Sales (The Gold Standard)

If a stranger hands you money for a product that doesn't exist yet, you've validated demand. Period.

The approach is straightforward: create a landing page with mockups or a video, add payment through Stripe or Gumroad, and offer early-bird pricing to incentivize action.

Buffer's validation story is the classic example. Joel Gascoigne created a two-page landing page, but added a pricing page between the landing page and the email signup form. When visitors clicked on a paid plan and still entered their email, he knew he had something real. Within three days of launching, he had his first paying customer.

Encharge set a goal of five pre-orders and got 50, generating $3,950 in revenue before writing any code.

The psychology is simple: talk is cheap, money is not.

Tier 2: Landing Page + Paid Ads (Strong Signal)

A smoke test involves creating a landing page that looks like a real product and measuring how many strangers convert.

According to Unbounce's analysis, SaaS landing pages average 3.8% conversion, with top performers hitting 11-20%.

Here's how to interpret your results:

• Below 5%: Weak signal — probably a messaging problem
• 5-10%: Moderate signal — worth iterating
• 10-15%: Strong signal — green light to build
• 15%+: Excellent signal from cold traffic

Budget recommendation: $10-20 per day for 7 days across Google and Facebook ads. Track click-through rate (2%+ is good), cost per click (under $2), and landing page conversion.

Tier 3: Waitlist Signups (Measurable Interest)

Waitlists are stronger than surveys but weaker than pre-sales because they require no financial commitment.

Robinhood built a 1 million person waitlist before launch using referral mechanics — every referral moved you up the queue.

But waitlist signups decay quickly. If users get access within one month, about 50% convert to free signups. Wait beyond three months, and you're looking at sub-20% conversion.

Quality matters more than quantity. 200 engaged users who match your ideal customer profile beats 1,000 random email addresses.

Tier 4: Customer Interviews (Essential But Incomplete)

Conversations alone don't prove demand — people are polite. That's why Rob Fitzpatrick's The Mom Test is required reading.

The core principle: don't ask for opinions about your idea. Ask about their life, their problems, and their past behavior.

Good questions:

• "What's the hardest part about doing this thing?"
• "How are you solving this problem today?"
• "Have you ever paid to solve this? How much?"

Bad questions:

• "Would you buy this?" (People are overly optimistic about future behavior)
• "Do you think this is a good idea?" (Politely delivered lies)

Aim for 10-20 interviews minimum. The most valuable signal isn't what people say — it's emotional intensity. When someone describes their problem with visible frustration, you've found something worth solving.

Tier 5: Surveys (Directional Data Only)

Surveys rank lowest because people say one thing and do another. Use them to quantify patterns from interviews, not as primary validation.

The Product Validation Process: Step-by-Step

Here's a framework you can run in 2-4 weeks with $300-500.

Week 1: Problem Research (Days 1-7)

Community research: Lurk in relevant communities — Reddit, Twitter/X, Indie Hackers, niche forums. What are people complaining about? What hacky workarounds are they using?

Competitor analysis: Study reviews on G2, Capterra, and TrustPilot. What do customers hate about existing solutions?

Keyword research: Use Google Trends or Keywords Everywhere. Monthly search volume of 100-1,000 indicates a viable niche. Look for high-intent keywords like "best X software pricing."

Week 2: Customer Conversations (Days 8-14)

Aim for 10-20 conversations. Find people through LinkedIn outreach, Reddit/Twitter DMs, cold email, or paid options like Respondent.io.

The interview framework:

1. Context (2-3 min): Understand who they are
2. Problem exploration (10-15 min): Open questions about pain points
3. Current solutions (5 min): How do they handle this today?
4. Commitment test (2-3 min): "Can I put you on a waitlist?" or "Would you pay $X for early access?"

The commitment test separates genuine interest from politeness.

Week 3: Landing Page Test (Days 15-21)

Build a simple landing page with Carrd, Webflow, or Framer. Essential elements: clear headline, 3-5 benefits, social proof, and a strong call-to-action.

Drive traffic through paid ads ($100-300), community posts, or Twitter. Track visitors, conversion rate, and scroll depth with tools like Hotjar.

Week 4: Pre-Sale Attempt (Days 22-28)

Asking for money before your product exists feels scary, but it's the ultimate validation.

Approaches that work:

• Lifetime deal: "Pay $99 once, get access forever"
• Founding member pricing: "50% off for the first 50 customers"

Be transparent — tell people it's not built yet, and offer a money-back guarantee. Most people respect honesty.

Real Examples: How Top Founders Validated

Dropbox: The Explainer Video

Drew Houston faced brutal unit economics — Google AdWords cost $233-388 per customer for a $99 subscription. His solution? A three-minute demo video targeting Hacker News with inside jokes for the tech audience.

Their waitlist exploded from 5,000 to 75,000 overnight. Dropbox is now worth $10+ billion.

Pieter Levels: The Serial Validator

Pieter Levels runs a $3M+/year portfolio as a solo founder. His philosophy: "If people actually pay money... then I can see if the idea is validated." 95% of his 70+ projects failed — the five that succeeded made him wealthy. He ships fast, even with "terrible quality," because validation requires real users.

Superhuman: The PMF Survey

Rahul Vohra popularized a specific metric: ask users "How would you feel if you could no longer use [product]?" If 40%+ say "very disappointed," you have product-market fit.

Benchmarks: What "Validated" Actually Means

Green Lights (Proceed)

• Any pre-sales from strangers (3-5 is venture studio standard)
• 10%+ landing page conversion from cold traffic
• 3+ people describing the same problem unprompted with emotional intensity

Yellow Lights (Iterate)

• 5-10% landing page conversion
• Interest but no pre-sales
• "Nice to have" language with no urgency

Red Flags (Kill It)

• Below 5% landing page conversion
• Zero pre-sales after 10+ attempts
• Can't find 10 people with the problem after reasonable search

As Eric Ries says: "If you have to ask whether you have product-market fit, you don't."

When to stop validating: You're ready to build when you have pre-sales from 3-5 strangers, 10%+ conversion from cold traffic, and clear differentiation from competitors. Set a deadline — 2-4 weeks is enough. Validation becomes procrastination when you're avoiding the work of actually building.

Frequently Asked Questions

What's the difference between a waitlist and pre-sales for validation?

Waitlist signups indicate interest but require no commitment. Pre-sales require payment — a much stronger signal. Use a waitlist to capture broad interest, then test pre-sales with your most engaged subscribers.

How do I know if negative validation means "bad idea" or "bad execution"?

Iterate before killing. Try different messaging, audiences, or channels. If three significantly different approaches all fail, the idea probably isn't viable.

What if my product requires significant trust before people will pay?

Focus on landing page conversion and waitlist engagement as proxies. Offer money-back guarantees, show founder credentials, or partner with trusted brands to reduce perceived risk.

The Bottom Line

Product validation isn't about getting permission to build. It's about proving you're building something worth building.

42% of startups fail because nobody wants what they're building. Don't be one of them.

Talk to customers. Build a landing page. Ask for money. If strangers pay you, build faster. If they don't, you've learned something invaluable — and you're free to validate the next idea.

Start Validating Today

Ready to validate your next idea? Waitlister makes it easy to launch a landing page, collect signups, and measure demand — with built-in viral referral mechanics.

✅ Landing pages that convert
✅ Viral referral programs
✅ Real-time analytics
✅ Pre-launch surveys

Validate your next product idea →